Rethinking the Space Supply Chain for a Sustainable Orbital Economy

By Ran Livne, Head of Biz-dev

Photo by: Benjamin Child

Introduction: From Access to Infrastructure

Over the past three decades, humanity has made significant progress in building infrastructure in space. What began as a domain dominated by a handful of government agencies has evolved into a globally distributed ecosystem. Today, more than 90 countries operate satellites and other space-based assets, reflecting the strategic, economic, and technological importance of space.

This acceleration has been particularly pronounced over the past decade. Driven by falling launch costs, increased private investment, and rapid technological advancement, the number of active space assets has grown exponentially. The result is a transition already underway—from space as a destination to space as an operational domain.

However, while access to space has improved dramatically, the systems required to sustain long-term economic activity in orbit remain underdeveloped. The industry has optimized for reaching space, but not yet for operating within it.

At the center of this gap lies a critical, often overlooked component: the space supply chain.

The Rocket Paradigm and Its Limitations

Reusable rockets represent one of the most important breakthroughs in the history of spaceflight. By improving launch frequency and reducing cost per kilogram, they have enabled the emergence of a commercial space ecosystem and unlocked entirely new categories of missions.

Yet, their success has also shaped the industry's mindset in a way that may now be limiting its evolution.

Rockets are, by design, optimized for a specific function: transporting mass from Earth’s surface into orbit. They are highly effective at this task, particularly for large payloads. However, they are not inherently designed to support the broader and more nuanced logistical requirements of a mature orbital economy.

As space activity expands, the need is no longer limited to accessing orbit. Instead, it includes:

• Transporting materials between different orbital regimes

• Supplying in-space infrastructure on a continuous basis

• Enabling responsive and time-sensitive deliveries

• Supporting distributed operations across multiple nodes in orbit and beyond

A logistics system built solely around rockets is ill-suited to meet these demands.

The Structural Gap in Space Infrastructure

Today, the only segment of space infrastructure that operates as a self-sustaining commercial system is Earth-centric satellite networks. Telecommunications, Earth observation, and navigation services generate consistent revenue streams and have reached relative economic maturity.

In contrast, two other foundational pillars of a future space economy remain in early-stage development:

In-Orbit Services

This includes capabilities such as refueling, in-space manufacturing, energy generation, data storage, and debris mitigation. These services are essential for extending mission lifetimes, reducing costs, and enabling new applications.

Sustained Human Presence

Long-duration habitation in space—whether in low Earth orbit, cislunar space, or beyond—requires robust life support systems, logistics chains, and operational continuity.

Both of these domains are still largely dependent on government funding and are characterized by pilot programs and proof-of-concept demonstrations. They resemble early-stage startups: technologically promising, but not yet economically self-sufficient.

A key constraint preventing their maturation is the absence of a scalable and cost-effective logistics backbone.

The Physics Constraint: Tsiolkovsky’s Equation

At the core of the logistics challenge is a fundamental physical limitation: Tsiolkovsky’s rocket equation.

This equation governs the relationship between a rocket’s velocity change (Δv), exhaust velocity, and mass ratio. Its implications are profound:

• The majority of a rocket’s mass must be allocated to propellant

• Structural mass further reduces usable capacity

• Only a small fraction of total mass—often around 4%—is available for payload

This constraint is invariant. It applies regardless of improvements in materials, engineering, or reusability.

While rockets are effective for transporting large payloads, their efficiency diminishes significantly when applied to smaller or more frequent deliveries. The physics does not scale favorably across all use cases.

Looking ahead to operations beyond Earth orbit, such as on the Moon or Mars, these limitations become even more pronounced. Transporting large quantities of propellant over long distances introduces both economic and safety challenges, making rockets an increasingly suboptimal solution for sustained, distributed activity.

Economies of Scale and the Rideshare Model

In response to these constraints, the launch industry has pursued economies of scale. Larger rockets reduce the marginal cost per kilogram, making them more competitive in the market.

This has given rise to the rideshare model, where multiple payloads are aggregated onto a single launch. While mechanically and economically efficient from the launcher’s perspective, this approach introduces significant operational compromises:

Lack of schedule control: launches are dictated by primary payload timelines

Limited orbital flexibility: final orbit and inclination are often non-optimal for secondary payloadsRestricted mission design: payloads must conform to predefined constraints

This model can be compared to bulk freight systems on Earth: efficient for large-scale transport, but not suited for precise, time-sensitive, or customized delivery needs.

As new use cases emerge—particularly those requiring responsiveness, precision, or distributed deployment—these limitations become increasingly problematic.

A Mismatch with Terrestrial Logistics Principles

Modern logistics on Earth relies on diversified, multimodal systems, where each transportation method is optimized for specific needs. Maritime shipping enables low-cost bulk transport, rail and trucking support regional distribution, air freight provides speed for high-value goods, and last-mile systems ensure precision and responsiveness. This diversity exists because no single mode of transport can efficiently meet all logistical requirements.

In contrast, space logistics remains heavily reliant on a single modality: rockets. All payloads—regardless of size, urgency, or destination—are constrained to the same transport framework. This creates inefficiencies, particularly for non-sensitive materials, modular components, and routine resupply missions that do not require the full capabilities or costs associated with rocket-based delivery.

As space activity grows more complex and interconnected, this one-dimensional approach will increasingly limit scalability and economic sustainability.

Toward a Multi-Modal Space Supply Chain

Enabling a sustainable orbital economy requires a fundamental shift in how we think about transportation in space.

Rather than relying exclusively on rockets, the industry must develop a multi-modal logistics architecture—one that integrates complementary systems, each optimized for specific roles.

Such an architecture could include:

• Heavy-lift launch systems for initial deployment from Earth

• In-orbit transfer vehicles for redistribution between orbital regimes

• Low-cost transport solutions for bulk, non-sensitive materials

• Responsive delivery systems for time-critical missions

By introducing specialization into space logistics, it becomes possible to:

• Reduce overall transportation costs

• Increase mission flexibility and precision

• Enable continuous operation of in-space infrastructure

• Support scalable human presence beyond Earth

Importantly, this is not about replacing rockets. Rockets will remain a foundational component of the system. However, they must be integrated into a broader network rather than serving as its sole pillar.

Enabling the Next Phase of Space Development

The transition from isolated missions to a sustained orbital economy depends on more than launch capability. It requires the development of systems that enable persistence, scalability, and economic viability.

A robust space supply chain is central to this transition.

Without it, in-orbit services will remain limited in scope, and human presence in space will continue to depend on costly and infrequent resupply missions. With it, entirely new categories of activity become possible—from industrial-scale manufacturing to long-duration habitation and beyond.

Expanding the Framework

The space industry stands at an inflection point.

The past decade has been defined by breakthroughs in access to space. The next decade will be defined by what we do once we are there.

To move forward, we must expand our framework—from a launch-centric perspective to a systems-level understanding of space infrastructure. This includes recognizing that transportation is not a single problem with a single solution, but a layered challenge requiring a diversified approach.

By rethinking the space supply chain and investing in complementary logistics capabilities, we can lay the foundation for a resilient, scalable, and truly autonomous orbital economy.

Rockets opened the door.

Now, it is time to build the network that makes space livable, operable, and sustainable.